A new season brought another excruciating loss in the Wolstein Center, as the Vikings battled from a 10-point deficit early in the second half to defeat Robert Morris, 66-64.
The loss dissipated some of the momentum the Colonials had been building. After an 0-4 start to Horizon League action, RMU rallied to win four of five – granted, three of those four wins came against woeful IUPUI and winless Detroit Mercy, the only teams lower than the Colonials in the Horizon League standings.
Still, wins were wins, and in a crowded race for first-round home court advantage, RMU could have punctuated a tough road victory and announced to the remainder of the field that they are a team to reckon with.
Horizon League contenders? Far from it. But the type of team who could pull a second-round upset and find themselves in the Horizon League Final Four in Indianapolis? Not out of the question.
Instead, Robert Morris did what Robert Morris has done so often this year – played inconsistent defense, couldn’t stop a team’s top option and clanked some big shots that would have given the team breathing room in the second half.
It’s hard to watch RMU and feel like they can surpass where they are in the standings. The Colonials have faced and lost (convincingly) to Green Bay, Youngstown State, Wright State and Northern Kentucky, four of the top five teams in the Horizon League right now. The only team not listed is Oakland, who at 13-9, 8-3 have arguably the best starting group in the conference.
RMU will travel to Oakland on Thursday.
The remainder of the schedule provides opportunity or will give you a chill down your spine, depending on your disposition. Robert Morris has already beaten woeful IUPUI twice and winless Detroit once. The remainder of the games, save for this upcoming Saturday against winless Detroit, will be against teams ahead of them in the standings.
As it stands now, it’s hard to build a case for Robert Morris being a “sleeping giant” in the Horizon League race. The Colonials are a pedestrian defensive team, ranking sixth in the conference in points-per-possession despite getting three games against horrible offensive teams in IUPUI and Detroit.
In the last three games not played against IUPUI and Detroit, opponents have compiled the following splits:
- Cleveland State: 1.12 PPP, 52.9% 2-point shots, 41.2% 3-point shots, 9-12 FTs
- Purdue Fort Wayne: 1.07 PPP, 44.8% 2-points shots, 38.9% 3-point shots, 20-24 FTs
- Wright State: 1.40 PPP, 61.0% 2-point shots, 60% 3-point shots, 15-18 FTs
There’s nothing special about the way RMU defends, and there’s not much anyone can do about it. The team’s 1-3-1 zone wrinkle gets once the novelty wears off because it highlights one of the Colonials’ greatest flaws as a defense – they don’t slide on time, nor with the proper energy.
Granted, the team will switch to zone to shy away from their greatest flaw: Dribble penetration. Aside from Chris Ford, the Colonials don’t have size who can defend the perimeter. TJ Wainwright is developing into a nice player, but he is a slightly undersized guard who will struggle on his best day contesting shots of larger guards and small forwards.
Robert Morris is not talented enough to win with offense. The only thing consistent about the team’s offense is its inconsistency. Against Cleveland State, Josh Corbin went 5-7 from 3. The rest of the team went 2-15. Markeese Hastings shot 7-13 overall, while the trio of Justice Williams, Steph Walker and Alvaro Folgueiras combined for a 5-24 effort.
When RMU’s jump shots are going in, it all looks great. Williams looks like the former top 100 recruit we were promised, Folgueiras looks like a legit stretch 5, Wainwright can take and make tough shots and the offense opens up inside.
But when the shots aren’t falling, it’s evident the Colonials have zero creation on the perimeter.
Every team needs at least one player who can do one of the following: Create a shot late in the shot clock, get to the paint and finish through contact or get to the line. Last year’s team could rely on Enoch Cheeks – now a starter for one of the best teams in the country. RMU was not able to replace Cheeks, nor did anyone step up in his absence.
I believe it’s a reason we have seen the Colonials continue to struggle in close games. Dating back to last season (so, about 50-55 games), Robert Morris has played 19 games decided by two possessions and/or overtime. They are 7-12 in those games. Here is the rest of the top half of the list:
- Cleveland State: 22 games, 13-9
- Milwaukee: 20 games, 14-6
- Oakland: 20 games, 13-7
- Northern Kentucky: 19 games, 10-9
- Robert Morris: 19 games, 7-12
Obviously, a list sorted by “two possessions and/or overtime” is arbitrary, determined by many factors, not taking into account strength of opponent or game situation. Still, the record backs up the uneasy feeling that comes across every Robert Morris game that is tight and late: If RMU isn’t coming out of a set play, they are often not taking or making good shots.
Compounding matters is a look around the roster, which feels short on answers. There are games where you would like to see Steph Walker used on the low block more, or wish that the team was more consistent from 3, but they’re not. For some players, we have more than a year of evidence that they can’t be relied on as offensive players.
I’m not trying to quell the improvements made during the season, because there has been progress. I think the coaching staff has wisely unleashed Chris Ford as a defense-first glue guy and are seeing benefits from it. Aside from a tough shooting night on Sunday, Alvaro Folgueiras has made legitimate strides to being a good Horizon League player with the potential to be better. TJ Wainwright is improving as a scorer – right now, he’s the team’s best perimeter creator.
But you can’t win without it all moving in harmony, and that’s kind of the point. For every one positive, it feels like there are two to three negatives. At this point in the season, the team we have watched is most likely to be the team we will continue to see moving forward. I think the Colonials will pull a few upsets in the regular season and could even win a playoff game, depending on the matchup.
While the middle class of the Horizon League is better than it has been, these teams are not without flaws. RMU is one game back in the loss column from Cleveland State, Northern Kentucky, Purdue Fort Wayne and Milwaukee and two games back of Northern Kentucky, who could have a tough go without Sam Vinson. It only takes one good weekend to throw your hat into the ring of relevancy.
But I’m not counting on it, and this coaching staff has their most crucial offseason to date beginning in a little more than a month.
Chronicling the Colonials 